Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS61 KBGM 131027
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
627 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through the daytime hours today, with the
pattern becoming more active later this evening and this
weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Weak ridging will continue to hold out through this mid-late
afternoon, providing the daytime hours with dry and warm
conditions. The quasi-stationary zonal flow we`re currently in
is mildly disrupted by a shortwave moving into the area from the
southwest this evening, spreading chances for showers and
storms northward through the nighttime hours. The greatest
chances for storms will be between this evening and Midnight
Saturday. Confidence is medium about how far north rain showers
and storm development could occur, with the majority of
guidance suggesting probabilities ending at and southward of
Cortland New York. This is likely due to a center of high
pressure to the north in Canada will strengthen through the
night tonight into early Saturday morning, which will help
limit the northward extent that showers and storms could occur.
Since there is a lot of difference between the northward extent
of precipitation in guidance, we continued with the NBM solution
to capture an overall area-wide chances for storms for
overnight tonight, and shower chances through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update

A maritime, marine layer air mass will be in place through much of
this short term period. East-southeast winds Saturday night and
Sunday will keep conditions mainly cloudy and cool with scattered
showers around. Due to this air mass being in place, instability
will basically be non-existent, so thunderstorms are not expected.
Cool with highs 65 to 75 expected. This same pattern continues
Sunday night, with a few showers or patchy drizzle around the
region, and overnight lows in the 50s. Winds start to veer more
southerly on Monday, but the overall surface flow can still be
traced back to the cool north Atlantic. The maritime air mass will
generally still be in place for most of Monday, but it could start
to wane over the Finger Lakes and Syracuse area in the afternoon.
Temperatures will nudge up on Monday, with a few breaks in the
overcast at times. Highs look to reach the upper 60s to low 70s for
most locations...except some mid-70s possible across the valleys of
the Central S. Tier, Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley
regions. Quiet weather expected Monday night, with weak surface high
pressure building. Mild and partly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 AM Update

Summer like weather pattern returns for this long term period.
Tuesday features a south-southwest flow as a broad, weak upper level
shortwave trough rolls in to the upper Ohio Valley. This will bring
partly sunny skies, with scattered afternoon showers and storms to
the area. Temperatures warm up, with highs around 80. The warming
trend continues for the middle of the week, again with partly sunny
conditions and scattered showers and storms each afternoon and
evening. It becomes more humid, with surface dew points reaching the
mid-60s to low 70s for both Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures are progged to reach the mid-80s Wednesday...then mid
to upper 80s for Thursday. Peak heat indices could potentially be
in the 90s for the valley locations. Overnight lows only dip down
between 65-70 Wednesday night. Early indications are that a cold
front will sweep through the area sometime between late Thursday and
next Friday. This will bring humidity levels down and temperatures
down several degrees, with more sunshine behind the front.
Uncertainty in the timing of the front is still there, so trends
will need to be watched closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly high confidence that VFR/unrestricted conditions will
stay in tact through the majority of the TAF period. Winds
expected to be light and variable.

Ceilings will lower as scattered rain showers are expected to
move into the area from the southwest towards the end of this
TAF period. Confidence is low with timing or development of
storms over a terminal, so it is left out for now. Though,
confidence is increasing that conditions will worsen further
than MVFR at the very end of this TAF period, and beyond,
through the early morning hours of Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Restrictions possible in showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...KL