Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

904
FXUS61 KBGM 290432
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1232 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the upcoming
forecast as model blends remain consistent from run to run.
Continued to keep dew points a little lower than modeled for mid
week, and lowered high temperatures slightly as well given potential
cloud cover and pop up afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will be increasing through this week leading to
elevated heat indices.

2) With the heat and humidity, Tuesday through the end of the week
could have daily isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong with a potential for localized torrential rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong upper ridge is expected to build into the Eastern US this
week, bringing a surge of hot temperatures and high moisture.
Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid-70s
are exhibiting a high confidence of occurring. That`s the easy part.
The risk of exceeding heat thresholds is where the decisions become
hazy. Baseline NBM blends continue to have a solid splatter of mid
70s for dew points which is likely a high bias, especially where
westerly component winds are a drying downslope off the Allegany
Plateau. Will lean on the current forecast which has already
modified the NBM for local dry adiabatic mixing and climatology. One
thing that could help keep high temperatures from reaching their
fullest advertised potiential, preventing upper 90s and even a few
100s air temperatures in urban areas will be afternoon convection.
Unsettled conditions along a cold front dropping out of Canada this
weekend will bring minor relief from the high heat and lower dew
points a bit as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Chances of Thunderstorms have been kept for each afternoon from
Tuesday onwards as the dew points climb along with the temperatures.
MLCAPE rises to 1000 to 2000 J/kg each afternoon. Right now,
triggers for storms are tough to pin down as we are near the NE edge
of the ridge with shortwaves that will be riding around the
perimeter of the ridge...mostly to our north and east. Forecast
soundings do keep come CIN and indicate a small temperature cap
between 850-700 mb but it is not much. 700 mb temperatures hovering
between 10C-12C are the poor man`s cap indicator as well and we are
covered by those temperatures especially Weds-Thurs. So barring
remnants from upstream MCS complexes propagating southward into the
low level moisture axis within the ridge, we should mainly see
limited activity as storms may be able to fire without a trigger
over higher terrain, then outflow from those could continue to
support additional storms into the early evening.

Tuesday still looks the most interesting for storms with some
forcing as an Elevated Mixed Layer is moving through, leading to
modeled 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8C/km. Shear is lacking (<30
knots) for a bigger event as well as a defineable trigger, but many
models at least fire off some convection...although latest runs of
the GFS/NAM and ICON have trended to a lower potential or at least
seem to be tracking storm solutions further north from the core of
the ridge. Still have to keep the PoP numbers up during this period
given the local potential noted above but am not too confident about
the numerous or likely coverage. Downburst will be possible with
initial convection given the CAPE and Mid Level Lapse rates.
Forecast soundings also show warm cloud depths over 10K feet with
potential for training given flow aloft so a flash flood risk is
there as well high high rainfall rates that could approach two to
three inches an hour within the deeply saturated airmass.

The threat for downburst lessens and becomes more isolated Wednesday
onwards as mid level lapse rates trends back towards 6C/km but the
CAPE will be high each afternoon but offset by the capping. Low
level flow and mid level flows align better later in the week for
training storms so if we do get storms to fire or if the ridge does
not build as far into New England with the ring of fire closer to
our CWA, we could be dealing with a persistent flash flood risk,
especially as deeper synoptic forcing tends to increase as the ridge
breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the period with
exception to a few sites where patchy fog may develop late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. This will result in a return of
visby restrictions, especially at KELM and possibly at KAVP.
Model guidance also hints at potential for fog also at ITH, but
confidence is too low. Otherwise, other terminals are expected
to remain VFR.

Outlook:

Tuesday through Friday...Mostly VFR, but some restrictions will
be possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...ES
CLIMATE...BTL